Simulation of extreme weather events: present  and future

                Prof. Henk Dijkstra
           Colorado State University, USA

In the Summer of 2003,  ensemble  simulations of the global
climate were  performed within a Dutch Computing
Challenge Project.  In each of the 62 members of the ensemble,
the period 1940-2080 was  simulated;  each member starts from
a slightly different initial condition. Over the period 1940-2000
the forcing fields (e.g., greenhouse gas concentrations) were
prescribed from observations. During 2000-2080, greenhouse gas
concentrations based on the business-as-usual scenario from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were used.  In this
talk,  I will present first results of the analysis of these 
simulations.
I will focus on  the changes in specific  extreme events and the
changes  in the behavior of the  North  Atlantic Oscillation
(associated  with  the strength of the midlatitude jetstream) and
that of El Nino.